Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Chart, Correlation, and Bull Run Potential

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are two of the most closely followed assets, but the relationship between them is rarely static. Correlation data from 2025 and 2026 shows readings that range from strongly positive to negative, and academic research shows the link was almost absent before 2018.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate from 2011 to 2026 is 85.27%, versus 16.81% for the S&P 500.
• The 30-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 spiked to 0.74 in March 2026 and fell to -0.30 in late 2025.
• Reported correlation readings vary by source and methodology, including 0.13, 0.34, 0.37, 0.80, and 0.86 in different windows.
• Bitcoin is not part of the S&P 500 index.

Bitcoin vs S&P 500: Historical Performance (2011–2026)

Long-run returns still separate the two assets. Curvo’s performance comparison for 2011 to 2026 reports Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate at 85.27%, while the S&P 500’s is 16.81%. The same data set puts Bitcoin’s standard deviation at 146.15% and its Sharpe ratio at 0.77. The S&P 500, by comparison, shows a 13.60% standard deviation and a 1.13 Sharpe ratio.

Those numbers capture a core trade-off: Bitcoin has delivered a much higher average annual return than the S&P 500 over the same window, but with far wider swings. Bitcoin’s annualized standard deviation of 146.15% is more than ten times the S&P 500’s 13.60%, and its Sharpe ratio of 0.77 trails the index’s 1.13 in this comparison.

Correlation Snapshots: 2025–2026

Correlation is not a single number; it depends on the lookback window and the period being measured. A chart published by Joao Wedson on X reports a 30-day Pearson correlation of 0.37 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, while the 252-day rolling correlation between their price levels is at the lowest point in 11 years. On a different time frame, Bloomberg reported on 2026-03-06 that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 had climbed to 0.74, the highest level of the year.

Newhedge’s correlation chart showed an S&P 500 reading of 0.34 and a Bitcoin price change of +0.37%. Spark.money’s correlation calculator adds a longer view: the five-year average 90-day rolling BTC–S&P 500 correlation is approximately 0.30, the 30-day rolling correlation spiked to 0.74 in March 2026, and it fell to -0.30 in late 2025.

Phemex also reports that the 30-day rolling correlation hit 0.74 in early March 2026, with intraday r-squared reaching 0.94 in certain windows. AInvest reports that the correlation peaked at 0.86 in 2025, up from 0.75 in 2024. Even in the same period, readings differ by methodology and source: a BTCC-posted article on TradingView quoted Axel Adler saying the correlation had surged to 0.80, attributing to that analyst the view that macroeconomic forces were influencing crypto. MEXC reported that the correlation flipped positive to 0.13 in late March 2026, citing Bloomberg data.

Why do the readings differ? Some are 30-day rolling figures, some are 90-day rolling figures, and each calculation answers a slightly different question. The most useful approach is to watch the trend across windows rather than fixate on a single print.

What the Research Shows About Long-Run Correlation

The relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has not been constant over time. A peer-reviewed article in PMC found that co-movement between the two was very weak or even non-existent before 2018, but interconnections emerged starting in 2018 and mostly from 2019 onward, using data from 2011-08-19 to 2022-01-14. This matches the recent pattern: correlation can rise during market stress and fade when conditions stabilize.

That long-run evidence is one reason not to assume a permanent relationship. The pair has moved from near-zero co-movement to high-correlation episodes and back again, which matters for anyone using one asset as a hedge for the other.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bitcoin correlated with the S&P 500?

Historically, Bitcoin has shown a low baseline correlation with the S&P 500, but periods of market stress can increase that correlation. In late 2025, as macroeconomic uncertainty grew, the correlation may have temporarily increased as both were affected by the same risk-off sentiment. By March 2026, the 30-day reading was back up to 0.74, while other windows showed different readings.

What if I invested $1000 in Bitcoin 10 years ago?

Based on historical data, a $1000 investment in Bitcoin 10 years ago could have grown substantially, potentially to over $389,061. The same historical record shows that Bitcoin has been far more volatile than the S&P 500, so past growth is not a forecast.

Is Bitcoin part of the S&P 500?

No. Bitcoin is not part of the S&P 500 index. The two are separate asset allocations with different return and volatility profiles.

What This Means for a Potential Bull Run

The evidence does not settle the bull-run question, but it describes the conditions under which a rally tends to amplify. At a reported correlation of 0.80, a continued rally in US equities could provide Bitcoin with a tailwind toward new highs, while an equity pullback could amplify downside volatility. When correlation falls or turns negative, as it did in late 2025, Bitcoin can decouple from equity moves.

For investors, the practical takeaway is to separate the long-run return story from the short-run correlation story. Bitcoin’s historical compound annual growth rate is far above the S&P 500’s, but its standard deviation is also far wider. Correlation readings will keep changing with market conditions, so a single snapshot should not drive an allocation decision.